UFC 314 SBX Betting Breakdown: Expert Picks, Fighter Stats & Top Tips to Win Big!

UFC 314 is set to deliver an electrifying night of mixed martial arts action on April 12, 2025, at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The event features a compelling lineup of bouts, with both seasoned champions and rising stars stepping into the Octagon. Here's an in-depth preview from our experts of the main card and select undercard matchups, focusing on each fighter's recent performances and statistical insights into their upcoming contests.​

Main Card

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight Title Bout)

Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski (26-4-0) is on a mission to reclaim the featherweight title after consecutive knockout losses to Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. These setbacks ended his impressive winning streak, during which he showcased exceptional versatility and resilience. Following a 14-month hiatus dedicated to recovery and refining his skills, Volkanovski returns with renewed determination to reestablish his dominance in the division.

Diego Lopes (26-6-0) has rapidly ascended the featherweight ranks. After a commendable short-notice debut against Movsar Evloev, Lopes secured finishes in his next three fights and earned decision victories over Dan Ige and Brian Ortega. These performances have positioned him as a formidable contender for the vacant title.

Statistical Analysis: Volkanovski's experience in title bouts and well-rounded skill set make him a slight favorite. However, Lopes' momentum and finishing ability cannot be overlooked. Odds suggest a 55% chance of Volkanovski winning, with a 40% likelihood by decision and 15% by knockout. Lopes holds a 45% chance of victory, with a 30% probability of a finish inside the distance. A full five-round battle is anticipated.​

Best Bet: Match Betting - Volkanovski @ $1.71

Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett (Lightweight Bout)

Michael "Iron" Chandler (23-9-0) is renowned for his explosive power and relentless pace. Since joining the UFC in 2020, Chandler has faced top-tier competition. He made a spectacular debut with a first-round TKO over Dan Hooker, earning a Performance of the Night bonus. Subsequent bouts included a title fight loss to Charles Oliveira and a Fight of the Year contender against Justin Gaethje, which he lost via unanimous decision. Chandler rebounded with a highlight-reel front kick knockout of Tony Ferguson but then suffered a submission loss to Dustin Poirier. His most recent outing was a unanimous decision loss in a rematch against Oliveira at UFC 309.

Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett (22-3-0) has captivated fans with his charismatic personality and dynamic fighting style. Undefeated in the UFC with a 6-0 record, Pimblett has secured four finishes, showcasing his versatility with both knockouts and submissions. His recent victory over Bobby Green via first-round submission at UFC 304 extended his winning streak to eight. Pimblett is currently ranked 12th in the lightweight division and aims to break into the top 10 with a win over the 7th-ranked Chandler.

Statistical Analysis: Initially, Chandler was favored with odds of -140, while Pimblett was an underdog at +120. However, recent betting activity has shifted, making Pimblett the favorite at -130 and Chandler the underdog at +110. This suggests a closely contested bout, with Pimblett holding a slight edge. An early finish within two rounds is plausible, given both fighters' aggressive styles.

Best Bet: Total - Rounds - Under 2.5 @ $1.68

Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio "Pitbull" Freire (Featherweight Bout)

Yair "El Pantera" Rodriguez (19-5-0) is celebrated for his unorthodox striking and agility. His UFC record stands at 10-4, with notable victories over fighters like Chan Sung Jung and BJ Penn. Rodriguez's recent performances include a mix of wins and losses against elite competition, highlighting his resilience and skill set.

Patricio "Pitbull" Freire (36-7-0) makes his UFC debut after a storied career in Bellator, where he held titles in both the featherweight and lightweight divisions. Freire's impressive record includes 11 knockout wins and 12 submissions, showcasing his versatility and finishing ability. Notably, he secured a TKO victory over Michael Chandler in May 2019 to claim the Bellator lightweight belt.

Statistical Analysis: Rodriguez's experience in the UFC and striking prowess make him a slight favorite, with a 60% chance of winning, likely by decision. Pitbull's debut status introduces variables, but his extensive experience and finishing capabilities give him a 40% probability, including a 25% chance of securing a knockout. A competitive three-round contest is anticipated.

Best Bet: Fight to Go The Distance - Yes @ $1.69

Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva (Featherweight Bout)

Bryce "Thug Nasty" Mitchell (17-2-0) is renowned for his grappling prowess and submission skills. His UFC tenure includes notable victories, such as a rare twister submission against Matt Sayles and a unanimous decision win over Edson Barboza. Mitchell's recent outings have been marked by both impressive performances and controversies outside the cage.​

Jean "Lord" Silva (15-2-0) enters the fight with a strong record, showcasing a balanced skill set and a penchant for finishes. His recent performances have positioned him as a rising contender in the featherweight division.​

Statistical Analysis: Silva is the betting favorite with an 84% chance of victory, reflecting his recent form and betting odds. Mitchell's 16% probability underscores the challenge he faces. A finish within two rounds is anticipated.

Best Bet: Match Betting - Silva @ $1.47

Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight Bout)

Nikita "The Miner" Krylov (30-9-0) has experienced a mixed bag of results in his recent outings. His last five fights include victories over Volkan Oezdemir and Alexander Gustafsson, showcasing his versatile skill set. However, losses to Magomed Ankalaev, Paul Craig, and Johnny Walker have highlighted areas for improvement.

Dominick "The Devastator" Reyes (14-4-0) is on a quest to regain his standing in the division after a series of challenging bouts. Following a controversial decision loss to Jon Jones, Reyes suffered knockout defeats against Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka. A recent win over Ryan Spann has reignited his momentum.

Statistical Analysis: This bout is evenly matched, with both fighters having a 50% chance of victory. Reyes has a 30% probability of winning by knockout, while Krylov has a 25% chance of securing a submission. A full three-round contest is anticipated.

Best Bet: Fight to Go The Distance - Yes @ $2.63

Undercard Highlights

Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson (Featherweight Bout)

Dan "50K" Ige (18-9-0) has faced top-tier competition in his recent fights. His last five outings include wins against Gavin Tucker and Edson Barboza, but losses to Korean Zombie, Josh Emmett, and Movsar Evloev have tested his resilience.​

Sean "The Sniper" Woodson (13-1-1) brings a unique physical advantage to the featherweight division with his 6'2" frame. Recent victories over Youssef Zalal and Collin Anglin, along with a draw against Julian Erosa, demonstrate his potential.​

Statistical Analysis: Ige holds a slight edge with a 55% chance of winning, primarily by decision (35%). Woodson's 45% probability includes a 25% chance of a knockout. A three-round battle is expected. Recent betting action has Woodson firming into a favorite, giving great odds if you follow the stats... but we'll be following the betting trend.

Best Bet: Match Betting - Woodson @ $1.56

Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba (Women's Strawweight Bout)

Yan Xiaonan (19-4-0) is known for her striking prowess. Her recent fights include wins over Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz, but losses to Carla Esparza and Marina Rodriguez have highlighted challenges against grapplers.​

Virna Jandiroba (21-3-0) is a submission specialist with a strong grappling background. Recent victories over Kanako Murata and Felice Herrig, and a loss to Amanda Ribas, showcase her ground game dominance.

Statistical Analysis: Jandiroba is favored with a 60% chance of victory, likely by submission (45%). Xiaonan's 40% probability leans towards a decision win (30%). The fight is expected to go the distance.

Best Bet: Match Betting - Jandiroba @ $1.68

Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper (Lightweight Bout)

Jim "A-10" Miller (38-18-0) is a veteran with extensive UFC experience. His recent fights include wins over Roosevelt Roberts and Erick Gonzalez, and losses to Joe Solecki and Vinc Pichel.

Chase "The Dream" Hooper (15-3-1) is a young prospect known for his grappling. Recent victories over Peter Barrett and Felipe Colares, and a loss to Steven Peterson, mark his UFC journey.

Statistical Analysis: Hooper is favored with a 65% chance of winning, primarily by submission (50%). Miller's 35% probability includes a 20% chance of a knockout. A finish within two rounds is plausible.

Best Bet: Fight to Go The Distance - No @ $1.46

Fight Start Times

UFC 314's main card is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM Eastern Time (ET) on April 12, 2025. Below are the corresponding start times for various regions:​

Note: The main event time is approximate and depends on the duration of earlier fights.

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Odds are accurate as of 2pm UTC, 12th April 2025